Orioles vs. Royals prediction, odds, line, time: 2024 MLB Wild Card Series Game 1 picks, bets by proven model

The top two American League Wild Card teams battle when the fifth-seeded Kansas City Royals take on the fourth-seeded Baltimore Orioles in the first game of their best-of-three series in the 2024 MLB playoffs on Tuesday. The Royals (86-76), who tied for second in the AL Central with the Detroit Tigers, finished 41-40 on the road. The Orioles (91-71), who were second in the AL East behind the champion New York Yankees, were 44-37 on their home field. Baltimore has won three in a row and seven of 10, while Kansas City went 4-6 over their past 10 games. The Orioles have won eight of the last 10 games against the Royals, including two in a row. 

First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore is set for 4:08 p.m. ET. Baltimore is a -159 favorite on the money line (risk $159 to win $100) in the latest Royals vs. Orioles odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 7, up half a run from the opener. Before making any Orioles vs. Royals picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Entering the 2024 MLB playoffs, it’s on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+822) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Royals vs. Orioles and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Orioles vs. Royals: 

• Royals vs. Orioles money line: Baltimore -159, Kansas City +135
• Royals vs. Orioles over/under: 7 runs
• Royals vs. Orioles run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+143)
• KC: The Royals finished the regular season with a plus-91 in run differential
• BAL: The Orioles are 37-26 in day games
• Royals vs. Orioles picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Royals vs. Orioles streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back the Orioles

Baltimore is expected to send right-hander Corbin Burnes (15-9, 2.92 ERA) to the mound. Burnes will be making his ninth career postseason appearance and third start. He is 1-1 in the postseason with a 2.84 ERA with six walks and 22 strikeouts in 19 innings of work. He has won two of his past three decisions to end the regular season. In his last outing, he took the loss in a 10-1 defeat at New York against the Yankees. He went five innings, allowing just two hits and one earned run with one walk and nine strikeouts.

Among the Orioles’ top hitters is shortstop Gunnar Henderson. In 158 games this season, he batted .282 with 31 doubles, seven triples, 37 homers and 92 RBI. In a 9-7 win at New York on Wednesday, he was 3-for-5 with two RBI and two runs scored. In 12 career games against Kansas City, he is hitting .310 with two doubles, three homers and seven RBI. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Royals

Left-hander Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA) is expected to start for Kansas City. Ragans is making his postseason debut. In 32 games this season, all starts, he has allowed 146 hits, 65 earned runs and 67 walks with 223 strikeouts in 186.1 innings of work. He did not get a decision in his last outing, a 1-0 win at Washington on Sept. 24. In that game, he pitched six innings, allowing three hits and three walks, while striking out six.

Offensively, Bobby Witt Jr. sets the tone for the Royals. In 161 games this season, Witt hit .332 with 45 doubles, 11 triples, 32 homers, 109 RBI and 31 stolen bases. He has hits in eight of his last nine games, including three in a row. In a 2-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants on Sept. 20, he went 3-for-4. He was 2-for-4 with a walk and stolen base in the win at Washington Sept. 24. See which team to pick here.

How to make Royals vs. Orioles picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the run total, projecting 8.4 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the MLB model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Royals vs. Orioles, and which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that’s on a 32-17 roll on top-rated MLB run-line picks, and find out.