Mets vs. Brewers prediction, odds, line, time: 2024 MLB Wild Card Series Game 1 picks, bets by proven model

The New York Mets return to Milwaukee on Tuesday to face the National League Central Division champion Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of their 2024 NL Wild Card matchup. The Mets (89-73), who lost two of three to the Brewers this past weekend, advanced to the postseason by defeating the Atlanta Braves 8-7 in Game 1 of their doubleheader on Monday. The Braves also earned a spot in the playoffs with a 3-0 win in Game 2. The Brewers (93-69), division champions for the third time in four years, are making their sixth playoff appearance in seven years.

First pitch from American Family Field in Milwaukee is set for 5:30 p.m. ET. The all-time series is tied 86-86, but the Brewers have won seven of the last eight meetings and 12 of the past 14. Milwaukee is a -140 favorite on the money line (risk $140 to win $100) in the latest Mets vs. Brewers odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 7.5. Before making any Brewers vs. Mets picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Entering the 2024 MLB playoffs, it’s on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+822) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Brewers and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Brewers vs. Mets: 

• Mets vs. Brewers money line: Milwaukee -140, New York +118
• Mets vs. Brewers over/under: 7.5 runs
• Mets vs. Brewers run line: Milwaukee -1.5 (+165)
• NYM: The Mets were 32-37 in day games during the regular season
• MIL: The Brewers were 39-26 in games played during the day
• Mets vs. Brewers picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Mets vs. Brewers streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back the Brewers

Milwaukee is expected to send right-hander Freddy Peralta (11-9, 3.68 ERA) to the mound. Peralta has won five of his last eight decisions and has not allowed more than three earned runs in an outing since mid-August. In his last outing, he took the loss in a 2-1 defeat at Pittsburgh, but allowed just two earned runs on two hits in 5.1 innings of work. He walked two and struck out seven. In three career starts against New York, Peralta is 3-0 with a 2.60 ERA. In 17.1 innings against the Mets, he has allowed eight hits, five earned runs and five walks with 20 strikeouts.

Rookie outfielder Jackson Chourio is among Milwaukee’s top hitters. The 20-year-old has hits in seven of the past nine games, including four in a row. In Saturday’s 6-0 win over the New York Mets, he was 2-for-5 with a double and stolen base. In 148 games this year, Chourio is batting .275 with 29 doubles, four triples, 21 homers, 79 RBI and 22 stolen bases. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Mets

Right-hander Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA) will start for New York. In 31 starts this season, he has allowed 166 hits, 79 earned runs and 60 walks, while striking out 161 in 182 innings of work. He has won four of his last five decisions. In his last outing, a 5-1 loss to the Atlanta Braves on Sept. 24, he pitched four innings, allowing seven hits and four earned runs with one walk and five strikeouts. He defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 10-6 on Sept. 19, allowing just three earned runs on five hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in six innings.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor has been red hot since coming back from injury. He has hits in three of four games since then, including a 2-for-5 effort with a homer and three RBI in Monday’s 8-7 Game 1 win over the Atlanta Braves. He was 2-for-4 with a homer and two RBI in Sunday’s 5-0 win over the Brewers. He also had two hits in Friday’s 8-4 loss at Milwaukee. For the year, he is hitting .273 with 39 doubles, one triple, 33 homers and 91 RBI. See which team to pick here.

How to make Mets vs. Brewers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the run total, projecting 8.7 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the MLB model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Mets vs. Brewers, and which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that’s on a 32-17 roll on top-rated MLB run-line picks, and find out.