It’s not too late to bet on Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. to win the Heisman

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

History says USC star quarterback Caleb Williams will not win the Heisman Trophy for a second straight season.

There hasn’t been a repeat winner in almost 50 years since Ohio State running back Archie Griffin ripped through the Big Ten, combining for over 3,100 yards from scrimmage and 16 total touchdowns in 1974 and 1975.

Griffin is also the only two-time winner in Heisman history.

Williams has been impressive through four games, with 1,200 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and no interceptions. However, as we’ve seen in the past, Heisman voters just like newer and shinier things.

So, who could it be if not Williams? Enter Michael Penix Jr.

Washington’s QB has checked all the proper boxes through the season’s first month. The lefty gunslinger has put up bigger numbers (1,636 yards and 16 TDs) than Williams for an undefeated Huskies squad in a loaded Pac-12.

With that, Penix has rocketed up the Heisman betting boards, and there’s nowhere in America where you can bet him higher than 4-1 to win the award.

Michael Penix Jr. Heisman odds:

+225 at Caesars ($100 wins $225)
+300 at SuperBook
+350 at BetMGM
+360 at DraftKings
+380 at FanDuel
+400 at Circa ($100 wins $400)

Penix throttled Boise State in Week 1 to the tune of 450 passing yards and five touchdowns, only to follow that up two weeks later with a 473-yard, four-touchdown performance in Week 3 at Michigan State.

And all Penix did last Saturday was complete 76% of his passes for 304 yards with four more touchdowns as Washington clobbered Cal 59-32.

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I still don’t hate a pop at +380 or +400.

The great thing about Washington’s schedule is that Penix Jr. will face fierce competition over the season’s final two months. Home games against Oregon and Utah, combined with road tilts at USC and Oregon State, will only raise his stock if he performs under the bright lights.  

And there’s no reason to think he won’t.

DraftKings is dealing Washington’s win total at 9.5 with juice to the Over, while FanDuel is at 10.5 with juice to the Under. So, neither of the biggest books in the United States expects UW to blow a tire anytime soon.

If Penix throws for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns on a Huskies team that finishes 10-2 and has a shot at a Pac-12 Championship, the award is his.

One sleeper that I’m considering is Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. He’s a big, strong kid who can make all the throws for a Hurricanes team that could easily win 10 games in the ACC. And his odds will plummet if Miami rolls into Tallahassee in early November and upsets Florida State.

Given the Heisman voters’ love for something new — not to mention the possibility of Penix’s end-of-year statistics — it’s smart to bet on a guy with his arm talent playing in a conference known for offensive fireworks.

If Penix does what I think he can do, the sky’s the limit. 

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