NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model eyeing Bills, Chargers in Week 1, 2024

September 1, 2024 18

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It may be hard to believe, but just two teams enter the Week 1 NFL schedule on a winning streak dating back to last season. One is the Super Bowl champion Chiefs, while the other is a team that didn’t make the playoffs, the New Orleans Saints. Their two-game winning streak is the second-longest to Kansas City’s six-game streak. The Saints also have a two-game winning streak against the spread, going 4-1 versus the spread over their last five games. Should the Saints be in your periphery for Week 1 NFL bets? The Saints will host the Panthers and are four-point favorites in the NFL odds, one of the larger NFL spreads of the week. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. Los Angeles has a tendency to struggle as a season goes on, but it usually starts off strongly as it is 4-1 over its last five Week 1 games. Justin Herbert has also historically used Raiders games as an opportunity to pad his stats as he has 18 total touchdowns versus just two turnovers in his seven-game career against Las Vegas.

Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew is 0-2 in his career against the Chargers and should be under attack all game. Just six teams had more sacks than Los Angeles last year (48), and that was with Joey Bosa missing half the year. He’s back healthy to pair with Khalil Mack, who terrorized his former team with a six-sack game against the Raiders last season. Add in that the Chargers are going for their fourth straight home win over the Raiders, and the model has L.A. (-3.5) covering well over 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6) cover at home versus the Cardinals. Arizona has a tendency to get out to slow season starts as it has won just two Week 1 contests over the last eight years. Last year’s Cardinals team had the second-worst NFL record (4-13), with defensive struggles a big reason why. Arizona allowed the most rushing yards, the second-most points and the third-most passing touchdowns as it underperformed in all areas.

Meanwhile, Josh Allen may generate enough points, himself, to cover the spread. He’s accounted for multiple touchdowns in each of his last eight games, with 22 total touchdowns over that span. His team is also balanced after ranking in the top six in scoring offense, total offense and scoring defense a year ago. Buffalo is an AFC contender while Arizona is in its rebuilding phase, and that should be apparent on the field as the Bills are projected to cover in almost 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.