2024 college football predictions: Picking Power 4 conference champions

August 1, 2024 7

For the first time since 2014, college football has altered the format for determining a national champion. This year’s College Football Playoff will feature an expanded 12-team format, with the five highest-ranked conference champions receiving automatic bids and seven at-large bids for the next highest-ranked teams.

The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn the top four seeds in the 12-team playoff and receive a first-round bye, while the other eight teams will play in the opening round, with the higher seeds (5-8) hosting the lower seeds on their respective campus (or at other sites designated by the higher-seeded institution).

With those five automatic bids being handed out to the highest-ranked conference champions, and the four highest-ranked conference champions receiving a first-round bye, there will be even more emphasis on conference championship games starting in 2024.

With the season set to kick off in less than a month, FOX Sports college football writers Laken Litman, Michael Cohen and RJ Young provide their predictions for the conference championship game and winners from each Power 4 conference.

Who will play in the 2024 Big Ten Football Championship Game and who will win?

Michael Cohen: Ohio State over Oregon

The answer to this question likely boils down to two things — overall talent and quarterback play. The teams that are most consistent in those two areas will tangle at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis for a Big Ten championship.

From an overall talent perspective, the choice is almost certainly Ohio State. The Buckeyes return 14 starters from last year’s team, led by a handful of motivated veterans who bypassed the NFL Draft to return to school: RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Emeka Egbuka, DT Tyleik Williams, DE JT Tuimoloau and DE Jack Sawyer. They landed some of the most impactful transfers in the country, headlined by former Alabama safety Caleb Downs and former Ole Miss tailback Quinshon Judkins. And they added one of the most respected offensive minds in football by plucking then-UCLA head coach Chip Kelly to be the offensive coordinator. That should be more than enough to get them to Indy.

In terms of quarterback play, Oregon seems poised to have the steadiest production at that position following the transfer addition of former Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel, now in his sixth season. Gabriel has the most career starts (49), wins (33), passing yards (14,865) and passing touchdowns (125) of any active quarterback. He has elite weapons on the perimeter in wideouts Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart, and he’ll be protected by arguably the best offensive tackle combination in the conference with Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius. Expect the Ducks to contend for the title in their debut season, though they’ll ultimately fall short against the Buckeyes.

RJ Young: Ohio State over Michigan

Like the clinging oak and the sturdy vine, let us imagine Ohio State and Michigan entwined. Imagine their roots intersect, overlap and obfuscate their unique prowess born from mettle forged in the midwestern crucible of Big Ten competition.

The day has arrived when both programs have committed to the task of facing each other as often as they must — once for sure, twice, we hope, three times, we would levitate, combust and become pure energy — only to be brought down by west coast antagonists outfitted with chainsaws, hard hats and plans to clear out the trees and urban plan the land.

Oregon figures to land the first blow of the reversed manifest destiny. USC is far behind with its Tinseltown tingle, itching to take Paul Bunyan’s ax in both hands, sling it at the state of Michigan’s trunk and eagerly count the rings left inside. Look, the smart selection here is Ohio State-Oregon. And while that would be scrumptious, I’d like to see the conference’s two fiercest rivals play for the championship.

Laken Litman: Ohio State over Oregon

You’d be hard-pressed to find someone who doesn’t think Ohio State and Oregon will meet in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship this year. And lucky for us, we’re going to get a preview of that matchup when these two new conference foes face each other at Autzen Stadium in the regular season on Oct. 12.

From top to bottom, the Buckeyes have one of the most talented and deep rosters in the country. They return 14 starters from last year’s team, which includes veterans like wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, running back TreVeyon Henderson and defensive ends JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Those guys could have gone to the NFL, but returned because they want to beat Michigan, win the Big Ten and win a national championship. Ryan Day added a slew of transfers, too, including former Alabama safety Caleb Downs and Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins. And oh yeah, OSU’s new offensive coordinator is Day’s close friend, Chip Kelly. On paper, it’s hard to fathom this team losing a game at all.

The Ducks have already caught the attention of the conference when a giant inflatable duck was seen floating on the White River in Indy during Big Ten media days. There’s more where that came from when you look at Dan Lanning’s roster, which is especially beefed up on offense. Oregon added Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel, UCLA quarterback Dante Moore and Texas A&M wide receiver Evan Stewart during the offseason.

Gabriel is a star and has 14,865 career passing yards plus a combined 152 passing and rushing touchdowns. The idea is that he picks up where Bo Nix left off, and there’s a good chance he can do it.

Who will play in the 2024 Big 12 Football Championship Game and who will win?

RJ: Oklahoma State over Utah

I like Oklahoma State to win the conference title here, especially if the Pokes win their regular-season game against Utah. I believe the Cowboys are uniquely positioned to take one of Mike Gundy’s most talented teams and make a run at not just the conference title, but the national title, as long as injuries and arrests don’t upend the Cowboys on their way.

I’m a broken record at this point, but that just means the music plays: The toughest opponent on OSU’s schedule will be Stillwater Self-Sabotage — like their inexplicable 33-7 loss to South Alabama at home. The Cowboys return the best tailback on either side of the Mason-Dixon Line in Ollie Gordon (1,732 rush yards), all five starters on that 2023 offensive line with 214 combined starts, a seventh-year QB who threw for 3,460 yards, a receiver who fell just nine yards short of 1,000 yards receiving in Brennan Presley, and three 100-tackle performers, including Nick Martin, who notched 140. Martin is one of nine returning starters on a defense that coordinator Bryan Nardo ought to be able to make into one of the nation’s best.

Meanwhile, Utah has proven to move differently when Cam Rising starts. With Rising at quarterback, Utah played in back-to-back Rose Bowls with back-to-back Pac-12 titles. The Utes also return tight end Brant Kuithe, who could be the best tight end in the league. With Kuithe, Mycah Pittman and Micah Bernard — who will be backed up by 1,100-yard Idaho rusher Anthony Woods — all expected to play major roles in the offense, there’s no reason to believe this team can’t become the second one under Whittingham to run the table.

Laken: Utah over Kansas State

The Big 12 might have just lost its two most recognizable brands in Texas and Oklahoma, but who cares! The revamped conference will still be plenty fun and entertaining, and that starts with legitimate College Football Playoff contender Utah. Quarterback Cam Rising is back after tearing up his knee, which forced him to miss the entire 2023 season. Before going down with such a devastating injury (this included his ACL, meniscus, MPFL and MCL, by the way), Rising was one of the top QBs in the country. The Utes also get tight end Brant Kuithe, running back Micah Bernard and receiver Mycah Pittman back after they also missed last year with injuries. Add in some talented transfers and a veteran defense (12 players return from that side of the ball) and Kyle Whittingham has a team favored to win the conference in its debut season.

As for the Wildcats, yes, they lost veteran quarterback Will Howard to Ohio State, but Avery Johnson is an exciting player who is expected to step into that role and lead seamlessly. Johnson will have weapons, including former Colorado running back Dylan Edwards, whose potential is still untapped, as well as DJ Giddens, who rushed for more than 1,200 yards last year as a sophomore. Defensively, Chris Klieman returns seven starters from a unit that was one of the best in the Big 12 last year. This includes linebackers Austin Moore and Desmond Purnell, who combined for 17 tackles for loss, and Jacob Parrish, who led the team with four interceptions and nine PBUs. There are solid playmakers up and down the roster who could make things interesting in a conference that’s pretty wide open.

Michael: Utah over Kansas State

Even with a change in conference from the Pac-12 (RIP) to the Big 12, it’s difficult to pick against the consistency of Utah. Head coach Kyle Whittingham is entering his 20th season with the Utes, and he’s averaged 9.6 wins per year over the last five full campaigns (discounting the pandemic-shortened 2020 season). He brings back 12 starters from a team that still managed to win eight games in 2023 despite significant injuries to quarterback Cam Rising, tight end Brant Kuithe and defensive end Logan Fano. Rising should be healthy after a lengthy recovery from knee surgery to address multiple tears, including a torn ACL, and the Utes won the Pac-12 in each of the last two seasons during which Rising was healthy (2021, 2022). He’s the reason Utah has been picked to win the Big 12 this fall and the reason they will win it come December.

Their opponent in the Big 12 title game could be Kansas State, a program that has won at least eight games in four of the last five seasons. There is plenty of excitement around rising sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson, a true dual-threat player who threw for 479 yards and ran for 296 while scoring 12 total touchdowns in spot duty behind veteran Will Howard, now the presumptive starter at Ohio State. The relationship between Johnson and new offensive coordinator Conor Riley, who most recently served as K-State’s offensive line coach, will be important to watch as the season progresses. Former Colorado running back Dylan Edwards and former Penn State wideout Dante Cephas were notable additions in the portal. The defense returns seven starters from a group that finished second in the league in scoring last season.

Who will play in the 2024 SEC Football Championship Game and who will win?

Laken: Georgia over Texas

This is the matchup Nick Saban predicted at SEC media days, and who is anyone to disagree? Except for maybe his own former players. Crimson Tide offensive lineman Tyler Booker joked that Saban taught him not to “let some guy who lives in his mom’s basement determine how you feel. So I’m not going to let a guy who plays golf all day determine how I feel.”

One-liners aside, Bama is not favored to win the SEC this year. Georgia, who missed out on the CFP last year, is. The Bulldogs are anxious to get back and have the talent to do it with what will most likely be another top-five offense and top-five defense. Quarterback Carson Beck returns after passing for 3,941 yards last year (third behind Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix who are now in the NFL) and will be protected by four returning starters on the offensive line. The Dawgs lost tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey, but Oscar Delp and Dominic Lovett are back, plus there are some new faces via the transfer portal. Defensively, Georgia returns eight playmakers, led by leading tackler Smael Mondon, as well as linemen Mykel Williams and Warren Brinson.

Meanwhile, SEC newbie Texas is poised to make a run in its first season. Last year, the Longhorns boasted its best overall team since playing for a national championship in 2009. And after making it to the CFP, but losing to Washington in the semifinal, the team was left wanting more. Texas returns a third-year starting quarterback in Quinn Ewers (who is being pushed daily by backup Arch Manning), as well as All-American-caliber left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. Running backs CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue are back and Steve Sarkisian snagged Oregon State wideout Silas Bolden and Alabama’s Isaiah Bond from the portal. Defensively, the Horns lost a chunk of talent to the NFL, but as the best teams do, Sarkisian is reloading. Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and cornerback Malik Muhammad were stars as freshmen and anchor a unit with some reliable veterans and transfers.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Longhorns won the first matchup in Austin on Oct. 19, but beating any team twice in a season is a tall order, and you know the Dawgs would come out with vengeance in a rematch in Atlanta for the SEC title.

Michael: Georgia over Texas

It might be foolish to pick against Georgia this year. Not only will the Bulldogs be eager to avenge their loss to Alabama in last year’s SEC Championship Game — a loss that kept them out of the College Football Playoff — but they also have a chance to secure just the third Heisman Trophy in school history if quarterback Carson Beck plays the way most people expect him to in his second season as the starter. Beck was fantastic in 2023, completing 72.4% of his passes and throwing for 3,941 yards and 24 touchdowns with only six interceptions. That he did so despite injuries to star targets Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey speaks to just how efficient Beck really was. The Bulldogs surrounded him with high-level talent from the transfer portal in former Florida RB Trevor Etienne, former Vanderbilt WR London Humphreys and former Stanford TE Benjamin Yurosek.

Georgia’s most likely opponent in this year’s SEC Championship Game is Texas, which has the requisite depth and experience to reach the College Football Playoff for a second consecutive season. Significant losses at the skill positions were offset by several big additions in the transfer portal, most notably wideout Isaiah Bond from Alabama, and the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers, who should remain in the Heisman Trophy conversation for most of the season. An early non-conference matchup against Michigan on Sept. 7 should offer a window into where the Longhorns stand in their quest for the program’s first national championship since 2005. The back half of the schedule is quite manageable if Texas can get through a difficult mid-October double against Oklahoma and Georgia in consecutive weeks.

RJ: Oklahoma over Texas

I could pick Georgia to win the title and probably be right. After all, UGA has gone 86-11 since 2017, 42-4 over the last three years, won 28-straight SEC games and two of the last three national titles.

I could pick LSU, Ole Miss or Alabama and probably be right about any of them playing in the SEC title game. But those are boring. Given the nature of the SEC and how the league seems to have underestimated OU and Texas — like two wolves invited into a henhouse — I’d like nothing more than the two new members playing for what will not just be a conference title, but a likely bye in the first round of the CFP and bragging rights for the next year in what is the best conference in the sport.

Who will play in the 2024 ACC Football Championship Game and who will win?

Michael: Florida State over Miami

Choosing Miami to finally squash its pattern of self-sabotage and reach the ACC Championship Game feels risky considering the Hurricanes have won 10 games in a season just once since 2003. And there’s little about the way last year’s campaign ended — four losses in the final five games, including a Pinstripe Bowl defeat to Rutgers — that suggests momentum is heading in the right direction. But it’s the first time since 2018 that Miami will enter a season with the same head coach and coordinators as the previous year, and the Hurricanes brought in a loaded transfer portal class that ranked 10th nationally. Washington State transfer Cameron Ward should give head coach Mario Cristobal stability at quarterback, while the late-window addition of former Oregon State running back Damien Martinez gives the offense a true bell cow on the ground. Maybe this is the Hurricanes’ year to contend for a league title.

It still doesn’t feel like they’ll win it, though, because of what Florida State is building under fifth-year head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles were left out of last year’s College Football Playoff despite a 13-0 record and an ACC Championship, the sting of which is almost certainly still fueling the players and coaches who remain in Tallahassee. Norvell and his staff added former Clemson and Oregon State transfer DJ Uiagalelei to replace Jordan Travis at quarterback and had the brilliant idea to raid Alabama’s roster when Nick Saban retired. The Seminoles signed five former Crimson Tide players via the transfer portal, headlined by running back Roydell Williams and wide receiver Malik Benson. True, the defense will need to replace seven starters from a group that produced four NFL Draft picks in the first three rounds alone. But a top-10 transfer class for a third consecutive offseason certainly helps.

Will Miami make the 12-team playoff in the 2024 season?

RJ: Florida State over Clemson

Dabo Swinney has made the CFP six out of the last eight years. He has made four national title appearances in that time and won two. With the playoff expanding and no Nick Saban to worry about, Swinney and Clemson have a program that might take full advantage of its continuity.

But at what cost? Literally. Clemson brought in less money ($143,356,820) than it spent ($158,283,618) in 2023, according to USA Today. It is the only school in the country with a CFP-era national title — let alone two — that lost money last year. And yet they’ve won seven of the last nine ACC titles.

Getting past Florida State, Georgia and a Virginia Tech team that might turn heads this season are the obvious obstacles for the Tigers. But they’ll be the first to tell you FSU was lucky to escape Death Valley with a victory last year, and no one has the goods on DJ Uiagalelei quite like Swinney. The Tigers’ linebacking corps might be the best in the country with Jeremiah Trotter, Jr., Barrett Carter and five-star freshman Sammy Brown, and they’ll get after the quarterback.

Mike Norvell is quite close to putting FSU back where Bobby Bowden had them for the better part of the 1990s, replacing 10 NFL Draft picks with players of equal talent. That means the only returning skill player who started on offense is tight end Kyle Morlock. So, Norvell went shopping and came back with a haul like a dad fresh from four garage sales stops, two estate sales stops, and a quick turn through the flea market. When he got back to the house, he revealed Uiagalelei, as well as Alabama transfers Terrence Ferguson, Malik Benson and Roydell Williams.

Laken: Florida State over Clemson

After getting snubbed a year ago, Florida State enters the 2024 season needing to bounce back from all that drama. The new 12-team playoff format certainly helps its chances of making a national championship run, and Mike Norvell has a team that’s favored to win the ACC.

However, only four offensive starters return, thankfully three are on the offensive line. Beloved quarterback Jordan Travis is in the NFL, and former Clemson and Oregon State QB DJ Uiagalelei and redshirt freshman Brock Glenn are battling for the starting job. The Seminoles have a lot of rising talent in the passing game and return running back Lawrance Toafili, who will be expected to carry the load. Defensively, FSU has familiar faces in the secondary but lost a chunk of talent up front. Most notably, defensive end Patrick Payton, who recorded 14.5 TFL and seven sacks last year, is back and will be a name to remember.

Clemson should have another steady defensive team with plenty of young and hungry talent. But when Dabo Swinney is looking at question marks on his team, he’ll be looking at the offense. The 2024 season will be Year 2 for offensive coordinator Garrett Riley and quarterback Cade Klubnik, who needs a big-play pass catcher to emerge. The Tigers return leading rusher Phil Mafah and leading receiver Tyler Brown, but who else will step up?

Swinney has famously stated his strong opinions about the transfer portal, but how long can he realistically go by not jumping on the bandwagon with the rest of the country? That probably depends on how things shake out this fall.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young and subscribe to “The RJ Young Show” on YouTube.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

[Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.